Determining the best fitting distribution of annual precipitation data in Serbia using L-moments method

Abstract

Precipitation is one of the key components in the water cycle. To analyse the changes in precipitation at a specific location, it is necessary to identify the distribution that best fits the precipitation data. For this purpose, three distributions i.e. generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized Pareto (GPD), and generalized logistic (GLO) were fitted to the annual precipitation data collected from 28 meteorological stations in Serbia for the period 1946–2019 using the method of L-moment. The goodness-of-fit for the selected three distributions was confirmed using the L-diagram and three measures namely relative root mean square error, relative mean absolute error, and probability plot correlation coefficient. From the results of this analysis, the GEV distribution was selected as the best fitting distribution of the annual precipitation data in Serbia. The increasing trends are presented in the western part of Serbia that can cause higher risks of floods than in other parts.