Determining the accuracy and errors of estimating a shooter’s position based on cartridge case ejection patterns

Abstract

Ejected cartridge cases in shooting incidents are useful in crime scene reconstruction to approximate the location of a shooter and the dynamics of an encounter. The purpose of this study is to propose a method to approximate a shooter’s position based on a reference sample set of cartridge case ejection patterns. This research is significant as there are no blind studies that determine the precision or errors when estimating a shooter’s position based on cartridge case ejection patterns. Understanding the errors associated with shooter position estimation may give investigators a standardized method for establishing a reference set of cartridge cases which reflect the behavior of ejection patterns under controlled variables, while having a more reliable method when estimating a shooter’s position. A reference sample set of more than 312 cartridge cases was collected from various people firing the same gun and ammunition from a known position and at different heights using a double-handed grip. The proposed method used the statistical data from the reference sample set and was tested on blind data sets to determine the errors and precision using “unknown” shooters. The blind testing sets ranged between 1 and 6 ejected cartridge cases with a known direction of fire. It was found that with an increasing number of cartridge cases used for shooter position estimation, the errors and standard deviation decreased, improving estimation results. With a blind set of 6 cartridge cases, the errors were shown to average 122 cm from the known firing position. The applicability of this method depends significantly on the type of firearm, ammunition, human factors, environment and other factors.