Determining Risk Factors That Influence Cycling Crash Severity, for the Purpose of Setting Sustainable Cycling Mobility

Abstract

This paper has, for the purpose of setting sustainable cycling mobility, identified and assessed basic risk factors influencing crash severity. The study has examined risk factors for cyclist injuries and fatalities, according to the characteristics relative to cyclists, roads, vehicles and environment posing the risk of cyclist fatalities or serious injuries. The method of Binary logistic regression has been used as the study to analyze a sample of 21,235 traffic crashes involving cyclists in Serbia, over the period 2010–2021. The task was not to define the equations for risk prediction, but to determine the injury and fatality risk factors for cyclists. The results of this study show that cyclists older than 60 have a higher probability of being injured. Cyclists are more likely to be injured or killed on weekdays than on weekends, as well as in conditions of twilight. The odds of fatality and injury outside built-up areas are higher, while the odds of sustaining a serious injury are higher in built-up areas. The results of this study indicate significant overlapping with the previous research related to the analysis of factors influencing the severity of cyclist crashes. These results can be important for the policy makers and stakeholders involved, as they can help them gain clear understanding of the current road safety situation, for the purpose of creating an opportunity for developing best action plans and practical measures in the process of implementing sustainable urban mobility planning.