Abstract
Abstract. Water is an essential input to the majority of human activities. Often, access to sufficient water resources is limited by quality and infrastructure aspects, rather than by resource availability alone, and each activity has different requirements regarding the nature of these aspects. This paper develops an integrated approach to assess the adequacy of water resources for the three major water users: the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Additionally, we include environmental water requirements. We first outline the main determinants of water adequacy for each sector. Subsequently, we present an integrated approach using fuzzy logic, which allows assessing sector-specific as well as overall water adequacy. We implement the approach in two case study settings to exemplify the main features of the approach. Using results from two climate models and two forcing RCPs (representative concentration pathways), as well as population projections, we further assess the impacts of climate change in combination with population growth on the adequacy of water resources. The results provide an important step forward in determining the most relevant factors, impeding adequate access to water, which remains an important challenge in many regions of the world. The methodology allows one to directly identify the factors that are most decisive in determining the adequacy of water in each region, pointing towards the most efficient intervention points to improve conditions. Our findings underline the fact that, in addition to water volumes, water quality is a limitation for all sectors and, especially for the environmental sector, high levels of pollution are a threat to water adequacy.
Highlights
Water is a critical resource for human livelihoods and is needed for the majority of human activities
Much knowledge exists regarding the single determinants of water scarcity, making clear that water shortages are often due to quality or access, rather than due to physical water shortages (Finlayson et al, 2012; WHO/UNICEF, 2000; WWAP, 2012; Sullivan, 2002)
Water availability for the purpose of the analysis describes the total internal renewable water resource, as required for the assessment of water scarcity according to Falkenmark (1997) and Falkenmark and Rockström (2004)
Summary
Water is a critical resource for human livelihoods and is needed for the majority of human activities. Other important water users are the industrial and agricultural sectors, which each have distinct requirements regarding quantity, quality and access (Flörke et al, 2011; Falkenmark, 1997). Approaches such as the water poverty index (Sullivan, 2002) and the climate vulnerability index (Sullivan and Meigh, 2005) are important starting points in understanding and integrating the multiple aspects of water scarcity and water poverty. Human activities already impact water availability, and projected development pathways indicate further increases of these pressures deriving from population and economic growth (Bates et al, 2008). Climate change is expected to alter temperature and precipitation patterns (Kirtman et al, 2013; Collins et al, 2013), potentially reducing available water resources and adding to the existing situation of water scarcity
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