Determining possibilities for applying theoretical principles of situational risk management in the aviation safety system

Abstract

Aviation safety is one of the main criteria for its sustainable development. The object of this study is safety risk management, which is the main tool of the aviation safety management system. The problem that needs to be further solved is the improvement of aviation risk management methods under war, force majeure, and crisis conditions, as well as under conditions of uncertainty, when there is a minimum of time to make a single correct decision. The theory of situational management can be chosen as the theoretical basis for creating decision-making systems. The development of special languages for describing the situation arising at the control object, as well as in its control system, makes it possible to correctly represent the models of control objects and the evolution of knowledge about them. The work solves the task of building a model of the control object, which takes into account the maximum number of its features suitable for implementation. In order to represent the management object based on the method of expert assessments, the weighting coefficients of the risk characteristics’ probabilities and the values of the weighting coefficients of the degrees of severity were calculated, a matrix of risk assessment indicators was built, and risk assessment criteria were developed. Based on the calculations, general approaches to aviation safety risk management were specified. The paper developed a «dramatic script» of an episode of aviation security risk management, which includes the stages of the episode, the content of necessary actions, the corresponding stages of aviation security risk management and the corresponding aviation security risk management. The content of the management itself consists in preventing the transition from the zone of acceptable risk to the zone of permissible and from the zone of permissible risk to the zone of unacceptable risk, as well as the implementation of measures to stimulate the transition from the zone of unacceptable to the zone of permissible risk and from the zone of permissible to the zone of acceptable risk