Determining logging costs for long-term timber-supply projections: estimation of input requirements by phase of logging

Abstract

The problem of measuring the economic dimensions of a timber resource is discussed. It is suggested that for rational timber-supply analysis, a means of estimating economically recoverable timber stocks on a regional basis is required, plus an ability to forecast how these stocks will change over time in response to changes in technology, input costs, and timber prices. As a first step towards achieving these goals, a study is described which demonstrates that statistically significant relationships can be developed for predicting logging operability, using only those resource characteristics which are, or could be, included in inventory records. Using data collected for 48 logging operations in coastal British Columbia for the period 1977–1979, equations are estimated for predicting the length of roads required for harvesting an area, falling and bucking productivity, yarding productivity, scaled volume of logs harvested, and the probability of choosing a specific harvesting system. The use of these, or similar equations, for timber stock supply modelling is briefly described.