Determining Growing Season of Potatoes Based on Rainfall Prediction Result Using System Dynamics

Ida Wahyuni,Philip Faster Eka Adipraja,Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy

doi:10.11591/ijeei.v6i2.315

Ida Wahyuni, Philip Faster Eka Adipraja + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.11591/ijeei.v6i2.315

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Abstract

Potato has been and is a basic food for many countries. However, because of the uncertainty in rainfall patterns that have occurred since the existence of climate change make a significant impact on the outcome of potatoes production from year to year. Therefore, it needs the determination of new growing season period according to climate change. The determination of growing season is based on the result of rainfall prediction data using system dynamics ever done in previous studies to predictions of rainfall during the next five years starting in 2017-2021. Based on the modeling that has been done shows that early dry season ranges in mid-April to mid-May by the length of days in the growing season ranges from 162-192 days. The growing season prediction model has small error only about two dasarian. By the middle of the dry season, rainfall is expected to be very low which will make the potatoes into water deficit and will affect the harvest of potatoes plants which can be overcome with the irrigation system.

Highlights

Potato is one type of tubers plant that has a relatively high carbohydrate content [1]
Due to the uncertainty in rainfall patterns that have occurred since the existence of climate change, significant impact on the result of potatoes products from year to year [4]
Based on the statement described, this study will determine the growing season of potatoes crop in Tengger, Indonesia based on rainfall prediction that conducted by Wahyuni et al [11]

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Potato is one type of tubers plant that has a relatively high carbohydrate content [1]. The simulation results are made is expected to be a decision support system that can assist farmers in determining the timing of planting and risk management in agriculture. The results of rainfall prediction can be used as a reference for determining the growing season of potatoes crop in the future in accordance with the needs of the potatoes to rainfall. Based on the statement described, this study will determine the growing season of potatoes crop in Tengger, Indonesia based on rainfall prediction that conducted by Wahyuni et al [11]. Growing Season Modeling The best time to plant potatoes is at the end of the rainy season and it can well growth with air temperatures around 20°C. In other words, determining the beginning and the end of the dry season will affect the potato growing season prediction with considering the air temperature.

RESULT

GROWING SEASON PREDICTION

CONCLUSION