Determining geo-disaster chains probabilities and disaster mitigation mode: A meta-analytical perspective

Abstract

In a harsh geological environment, different geo-disasters might co-occur or be in a chain sequence. Currently, existing research in related fields documents numerous instances of disaster chains and responses, which provided this study with important materials for determining disaster chains probability and summarized the disaster prevention and mitigation (DPM) mode. In this study, through the depth of the geo-disaster chains cases and the DPM cases, enabled a mitigation mode analysis summary. We take the case of geo-disaster chains as an example for this study, and represent 20 typical geo-disaster chains by data fusion and structuring of 139 geo-disaster chains cases.The probability assessment of geo-disaster chains is crucial for risk management and regional resilience. We introduced a Bayesian network (BN) model to describe the process of geo-disaster chains formation to map the structure and assess the joint probability of geo-disaster chains. The BN results showed that the longer the disaster chains length, the smaller the probability of the chains occurring. Among these, the probability of “Collapses-landslides-debris flows–barrier lakes–flash floods” is the lowest (0.069). Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that precipitation is the most sensitive factor in the development of geo-disaster. Interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is employed to examine the DPM index system across three key aspects: disaster emergency preparation, disaster response, and disaster recovery, and the conceptualized interaction among these components. ISM results showed that government policy intervention and scientific DPM measures can effectively reduce the losses caused by the development of geo-disaster chains. This research combined the occurrence process of the disaster chains with the disaster response process, and determined the entire chains of characterization from disaster understanding to disaster response, and helped reduce the vulnerabilities caused by disasters.