Abstract
Results of numerical modeling of water level rises (floods) in St. Petersburg are given. Simulations were carried out with the CARDINAL numerical model. Roles of different mechanisms in flooding are estimated. Numerical experiments were done for an idealized round cyclone with parameters of the cyclone of January 9, 2005, when the water level rose to 239 cm in St. Petersburg (central pressure of the cyclone was 965–970 hPa and wind speed reached 30 m/s). Sea level rises are obtained for different paths of such a cyclone over the Baltic Sea and for different velocities of its propagation. The most dangerous paths and velocities are determined.
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