Determining behavioural-based risk to SLODs of urban public open spaces: Key performance indicators definition and application on established built environment typological scenarios

Abstract

A behavioural-based approach can be used to assess how users’ reactions to surrounding environmental conditions can alter the urban Built Environment (BE) risk to Slow Onset Disasters (SLODs). Public Open Spaces (POSs) in the BE are relevant scenarios, due to micro-climate-related stress, users’ vulnerabilities (e.g., age, health frailty) and exposure time. Simulation methods can support behavioural-based risk-assessment, but results are generally site-specific. Performing analysis on BE Typologies (BETs) can improve robustness, since BETs represent archetypes from real-world scenarios. This work adopts a behavioural-based approach to evaluate time-dependant users’ risks of POSs in different BETs due to SLODs-related stress (i.e., heat, air pollution). UTCI and AQI values are mapped within each BET. Users’ distributions are then calculated depending on thermal acceptability correlations. Key Performance Indicators are developed associating users’ distribution to SLODs effects on health (i.e., sweat rate, water loss; health affection rate probability). The approach is applied to Italian BETs, under one relevant climate, rating their heat and air pollution risks. Results suggest critical conditions for toddlers. In detail, about 2-hour high heat exposure could result in dehydration, while 1-hour exposure to low NO2 concentration could result in +1% mortality probability. This approach could potentially support decision-makers on BE risk-assessment.