Determination on the Demand Level of Rural Resident’s Basic Pension Based on the Extended Linear Expenditure System Model

Abstract

By using extended linear expenditure model,this paper calculates per capita basic living demand expenditure of China's rural residents from 2004 to 2011 and forecasts the moderate demand level of rural basic pension from 2012 to 2020 on this basis. The conclusion thinks that the addition of both the minimum food and clothing should be treated as the upper limit of the basic pension after the minimum food demand expenditure has been provided at this stage. It suggests to improve properly rural basic pension standard before the end of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and establish the linkage mechanism of basic pension linked to rural residents' income and the lowest living standard of rural residents. With the pilot and full open of the new rural social pension insurance in China's rural areas, the provisions for the farmers'old-age security level from the basic pension standard of the system has become the focus of attention of many scholars.The research of scholars laid a solid theoretical foundation for further study of the rural pension insurance system and broadened the perspective of financial support for rural social pension insurance. But the current research are limited to static angle in the majority and can analyze from the perspective of dynamic less.The integarated research of specific calculation and analysis based on practical pension demand level of the rural elderly and the future development trend of the demand level are more a lack of. Therefor, this paper analyzes the demand level of rural resident's basic pension from the dynamic perspective on the basis of existing research results and provides empirical support for the study of the moderate level of the basic pension. In view of China put forward to build comparatively well-off society until 2020, the specific objectives of urban and rural residents covered by the social security system should also be fully implemented when the time comes. At the same time the prediction results is relatively convincing from now until 2020. Thus, this study's time is to 2020 in the analysis.