Abstract
Predicting the outcomes of earthquakes before they occur is one of the fundamental components of modern disaster management. Loss estimation analyses have an important place at the assessment stage of earthquakes and in estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. With these analyses, it is possible to access information that is relevant to potential damages and losses. In this paper, loss estimation analyses were carried out by using the earthquake scenario which foresaw a previous earthquake that was experienced in an around Kırşehir which is seismically active and located in the Central Anatolia Region in Turkey. The 1938 Akpınar earthquake which occurred in and around the province of Kırşehir was taken into consideration as an earthquak escenario, and loss estimation analyses were conducted for this earthquake scenario. In this paper, significant contributions will be made for preparation of an earthquake master plan and risk management plan for Kırşehir. Besides, studies on reduction of earthquake losses in the region may utilise these results.
Highlights
The destructive earthquakes which have occurred in the world and in Turkey especially in recent years and large-scale losses of life and property as a result these earthquakes have necessitated studies to be carried out and precautions to be taken in relevance to earthquakes as an agenda
One of these studies was on the software named Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER), which is a research project covering the physical, social and economic outcomes of earthquakes on the community within the scope of the European Union’s the Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES) Project, and it was developed by Boğaziçi University Department of Earthquake Engineering (Demircioğlu et al, 2009)
This study focused on the Akpınar earthquake in 1938 which caused significant loses for the province of Kırşehir
Summary
The destructive earthquakes which have occurred in the world and in Turkey especially in recent years and large-scale losses of life and property as a result these earthquakes have necessitated studies to be carried out and precautions to be taken in relevance to earthquakes as an agenda. Despite the catastrophic seismic events of the past, the loss estimation and seismic risk assessment studies regarding Turkey generally focused on the north-western part of the country because of the higher concentration of population (Bommer et al, 2002; Strasser et al, 2008; Bal et al, 2008; Erdik et al, 2003; Erdik and Durukal, 2008; Ansal et al, 2009) This is rather understandable due to the high population density and economical activities; findings from the earthquakes that occur in other parts of the country with relatively less impact are still significant in terms of both the hazard and vulnerability points of view. The Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software was used, and damage determination analyses were carried out for the province of Kırşehir in Turkey. Considering the possibility of the Akpınar earthquake to occur today, structural and economic losses were estimated While this process was being carried out, calculations were made based on two different methods that are found in the software that was used in the study
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