Determination of uncertainties of geomechanical parameters of metamorphic rocks using petrographic analyses

Abstract

Geomechanical parameters of intact metamorphic rocks determined from laboratory testing remain highly uncertain because of the great intrinsic variability associated with the degrees of metamorphism. The aim of this paper is to develop a proper methodology to analyze the uncertainties of geomechanical characteristics by focusing on three domains, i.e. data treatment process, schistosity angle, and mineralogy. First, the variabilities of the geomechanical laboratory data of Westwood Mine (Quebec, Canada) were examined statistically by applying different data treatment techniques, through which the most suitable outlier methods were selected for each parameter using multiple decision-making criteria and engineering judgment. Results indicated that some methods exhibited better performance in identifying the possible outliers, although several others were unsuccessful because of their limitation in large sample size. The well-known boxplot method might not be the best outlier method for most geomechanical parameters because its calculated confidence range was not acceptable according to engineering judgment. However, several approaches, including adjusted boxplot, 2MADe, and 2SD, worked very well in the detection of true outliers. Also, the statistical tests indicate that the best-fitting probability distribution function for geomechanical intact parameters might not be the normal distribution, unlike what is assumed in most geomechanical studies. Moreover, the negative effects of schistosity angle on the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) variabilities were reduced by excluding the samples within a specific angle range where the UCS data present the highest variation. Finally, a petrographic analysis was conducted to assess the associated uncertainties such that a logical link was found between the dispersion and the variabilities of hard and soft minerals.