Determination of transmission reliability margin considering uncertainties of system operating condition and transmission line outage

Abstract

The uncertainty of system operating conditions is a part of consequences which may cause to the volatility of a transmission system. This will hinder the performance of transmission system to effectively transfer the power between areas. Therefore, accurate estimation of transmission reliability margin (TRM) is required to ensure effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of uncertainties. The power transfer is also called as the available transfer capability (ATC) in which it is the information required by the utilities and marketers to instigate selling and buying the electric energy. The TRM is estimated by taking into account the uncertainties of line outages and system parameters generated by the bootstrap technique. A case study of Malaysia Power System is used to verify the robustness of bootstrap technique in the TRM determination. The results show that the combined impact of several uncertainties which significantly affect the value of TRM. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.