Abstract

The work is devoted to the actual problem of determining the parameters of dense traffic flows on the road cities network, which can be used when introducing automated traffic control systems. The subject of the study is to determine the parameters of traffic flows in the central part of the city. The purpose of the work is to develop methods for determining the parameters of traffic flows of the street and road network on the basis of empirical and analytical modeling to reduce the number of peripheral measuring devices in the automated traffic control system. Methodology. In the given thesis there was solved the applied scientific problem of short-term operational forecasting of the traffic flow intensity on the transport network using the empirical-analytical approach, in which the measurement of traffic flow parameters at the entrances to the area of traffic flow management is carried out by transport detectors, internal local objects are determined by modeling. The proposed model is based on the determination of intensities at approaches to stop lines of internal crossroads of the management area using recurrent sequences. Experimental researches of traffic flows on the network and on the crossings were carried out using video filming during periods of maximum load. A comparative analysis of the simulation results with the experimental data showed that the relative error on a network with an area of 50-60 hectares does not exceed 3%, which indicates the adequacy of the model and the possibility of using it for management tasks. Practical implications. Implementation of the empirical-analytical method in automated traffic management systems will make it possible to reduce the number of detectors by 43-46% depending on the area of traffic management and obtain a sufficient economic effect. The regularities of the movement of dense traffic flows of high specific intensity on short hauls, typical for the central parts of cities, have been investigated. Value/originality. According to experimental results there were obtained approximating models of parameters of the logarithmic normal probabilistic law of time intervals distribution in dense traffic flows, the specific intensity of which exceeds 600 vph; the changes in basic characteristics of the vehicles group in the traffic flow when driving through the road crossing taking into account its intensity and the distance from the group forming object are determined.

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