Determination of the trend of incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Kerman province 2014-2020 and forecasting until 2023. A time series study.

Abstract

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is currently a health problem in several parts of Iran, particularly Kerman. This study was conducted to determine the incidence and trend of CL in Kerman during 2014-2020 and its forecast up to 2023. The effects of meteorological variables on incidence was also evaluated. 4993 definite cases of CL recorded from January 2014 to December 2020 by the Vice-Chancellor for Health at Kerman University of Medical Sciences were entered. Meteorological variables were obtained from the national meteorological site. The time series SARIMA methods were used to evaluate the effects of meteorological variables on CL. Monthly rainfall at the lag 0 (β = -0.507, 95% confidence interval:-0.955,-0.058) and monthly sunny hours at the lag 0 (β = -0.214, 95% confidence interval:-0.308,-0.119) negatively associated with the incidence of CL. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) the multivariable model (AIC = 613) was more suitable than univariable model (AIC = 690.66) to estimate the trend and forecast the incidence up to 36 months. The decreasing pattern of CL in Kerman province highlights the success of preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic interventions during the recent years. However, due to endemicity of disease, extension and continuation of such interventions especially before and during the time periods with higher incidence is essential.