Determination of the Expected Value of Losses Caused by the Cargo Transportation Insurance Risks by Water Transport

Abstract

The purpose of this study was mathematical model development for assessing the cost of losses from risks in the maritime transportation of goods that are dynamic in nature, and developing a methodical approach to the dynamic costs assessment for each of the risks separately and integral costs for all risks and ensuring the fulfillment of the requirement to anticipate the insurance cost changes over the rate of change of the transportation integral risk (or its stage). The risks factor analysis in water transport, their classification and determination of the type and nature of their impact on sea transportation of goods were carried out. The groups of risk factors that lead to emergency situations for water transport in Ukraine were studied by comparing the data of 2019 and 2021 and determining their share in the total number of accidents before the start of the active phase of hostilities in Ukraine; the rates of their change were analyzed. This made it possible to develop a systematic assessment algorithm for the dependence of the expected and actual value of losses on risks and to create a mathematical approach to risks forecasting as a factor influencing the cost of expenses. As a result of the study, a methodical approach to forecasting the cost of losses from risks was formed for each of their types. However, the main attention was paid to the identification and assessment of dynamic risks, the impact of which has an absorbing nature relative to all others in their totality. Such risks in the waters of the Black and Azov seas today mainly include risks associated with the conduct of military operations, including such operations that go against international legal norms.