Determination of the effect of operating cost uncertainty on mining project evaluation

Abstract

Mining projects are complex businesses that demand constant risk assessment. This is because several kinds of uncertainties influence the value of a mine project, typically. These uncertainties may be classified as exploration uncertainties, economic uncertainties and engineering uncertainties. The evaluation of a mine project under these uncertainties is a complicated job, which may lead to making a wrong decision by managers and stockholders. Therefore, at first, the engineers must recognize the mining uncertainties before carrying out the project evaluation. The economic uncertainties are the most important factors, which may affect the project evaluation. Among the mentioned uncertainties, the operating cost uncertainty is an important and effective factor, which is ignored to a certain extent.This research uses the binomial tree technique to compute the net present value of the Cayeli copper mine under three scenarios: (1) assuming certainty for both price and operating costs, (2) assuming uncertainty for metal price and certainty for operating costs and (3) assuming uncertainty for both price and operating costs. It is concluded that the mine evaluation suggests greater net present value when uncertainty is considered for both price and operating costs.