DETERMINATION OF TECHNOGENIC RISKS IN TRANSITIONAL STATES DURING OPERATION OF WATER TREATMENT SYSTEMS IN HEAT ENERGY

Abstract

Introduction. Currently, the most important issues in the national economy are the issues of continuous, reliable and safe operation of circulating water supply systems, namely power units of thermal power plants and thermal power plants of industrial enterprises. Faultless and reliable operation of water supply systems ensures the normal operation of social and industrial enterprises, as well as the safe operation of fire protection systems, which can be disrupted by stopping the supply of quality products to the consumer. In Ukraine and abroad, this issue is devoted to many scientific papers on the assessment, calculation and management of man-made risks, the calculation and management of risks in water treatment systems in heat and energy. But the impact of these risks on environmental safety is not covered, while the issue is of great economic importance. However, the influence of these risks on environmental protection is not covered, while the problem is of great economic importance. There is no general methodological approach that considers the diversity of water treatment systems and their design solutions. There is no clear ranking of objects to be protected by risk analysis, and there is no analysis of the effects acting on them.Purpose and methods. The purpose of the work is to determine the risks associated with the patterns of the probability of failure of units, the patterns of transition from state to state and the risks associated with changes in patterns when replacing the blocks of the water treatment system or its elements. To study the probability of risks as a result of failures for the entire period of operation of the water treatment system in the heating industry, a structural and functional block diagram of the water treatment system is built. To obtain numerical data on the failure probability at any time, the failure probability curve was approximated by the curves of the law of normal distribution (Gaussian curves).Results and discussion. Studies have shown that the minimum risk is proportional to the minimum probability of failure. Then it will be fair to say that to minimize the risk, it is necessary to reduce the failure probability function on the part of the failure curve that corresponds to the operating state of the unit or element, that is on the plot or in the normal operation. To calculate the minimum probability of risk, it is necessary to determine the minimum of this function. Since failure is a function of many variables, thus Rfail = f (x, y, z) → 0. It is also established that for most water treatment systems at any time of operation it is possible to determine the risks associated with the regularities of failure probabilities of units, with regularities the transition of the system from state to state and the risks associated with changes in the above patterns when replacing the blocks of the water treatment system or its elements.Conclusions. As a result of the conducted researches, it is received that at long enough work of water treatment system it is necessary to establish in it a probabilistic constant mode of transition from a condition to a condition according to the scheme "working condition of all blocks - failure of one or several blocks - repair - working condition of all blocks". The probabilities of the sequence and duration of these events are determinable, which makes it possible on the one hand to assess the risks arising from the operation and to determine a management strategy to minimize these risks. The probability of failure rate intensity and possible changes in this probability during the operation of the water treatment system depending on the time interval on the failure curve on which the operation of this system is considered. Determining this probability makes it possible to predict risks throughout the periods of operation of systems and take measures to minimize them.