Determination of Seroprevalence of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia and Associated Risk Factors in Goats and Sheep Using Classification and Regression Tree.

Abdelfattah Selim,Ameer Megahed,Hamdan I Almohammed,Sahar Kandeel,Abdullah D Alanazi

doi:10.3390/ani11041165

Abstract

Simple SummaryThe seroprevalence of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia in goats and sheep was determined and the associated risk factors were identified using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) data mining model. The disease is more prevalent in older animals raised in a flock size ≥200 and that have communal feeding and watering. The CART model showed that the flock size >100 animals is the most important risk factor (importance score = 8.9), followed by age >4 y (5.3) and communal feeding and watering (3.1). The CART model showed more accuracy (area under the curve, AUC = 0.92 than the traditional logistic regression (AUC = 0.89).Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis is a potentially powerful tool for identifying risk factors associated with contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and the important interactions between them. Our objective was therefore to determine the seroprevalence and identify the risk factors associated with CCPP using CART data mining modeling in the most densely sheep- and goat-populated governorates. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 620 animals (390 sheep, 230 goats) distributed over four governorates in the Nile Delta of Egypt in 2019. The randomly selected sheep and goats from different geographical study areas were serologically tested for CCPP, and the animals’ information was obtained from flock men and farm owners. Six variables (geographic location, species, flock size, age, gender, and communal feeding and watering) were used for risk analysis. Multiple stepwise logistic regression and CART modeling were used for data analysis. A total of 124 (20%) serum samples were serologically positive for CCPP. The highest prevalence of CCPP was between aged animals (>4 y; 48.7%) raised in a flock size ≥200 (100%) having communal feeding and watering (28.2%). Based on logistic regression modeling (area under the curve, AUC = 0.89; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.91), communal feeding and watering showed the highest prevalence odds ratios (POR) of CCPP (POR = 3.7, 95% CI 1.9 to 7.3), followed by age (POR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.8) and flock size (POR = 1.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.2). However, higher-accuracy CART modeling (AUC = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.95) showed that a flock size >100 animals is the most important risk factor (importance score = 8.9), followed by age >4 y (5.3) followed by communal feeding and watering (3.1). Our results strongly suggest that the CCPP is most likely to be found in animals raised in a flock size >100 animals and with age >4 y having communal feeding and watering. Additionally, sheep seem to have an important role in the CCPP epidemiology. The CART data mining modeling showed better accuracy than the traditional logistic regression.

Highlights

Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that affects small ruminants, goats, caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (Mccp) [1,2]
The main finding of this study based on Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modeling is that the animals raised in a flock size >100 animals with age > four years having communal feeding and watering are at high risk of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP)
Results of the CART revealed that flock size, age, and communal feeding and watering are the main risk factors of CCPP

Summary

Introduction

Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that affects small ruminants, goats, caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (Mccp) [1,2]. Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that affects small ruminants, goats, caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. Because CCPP is a devastating respiratory infection that causes high morbidity (100%) and mortality (80–100%) as a result of severe fibrinous pleuropneumonia [5], the disease is considered one of the most common respiratory diseases that cause huge economic losses to the goat industry worldwide [6,7]. The disease represents a great threat and mostly infects goats but is reported as subclinical cases in sheep [8]. The most common clinical signs of CCPP in goats vary between high fever, depression, weakness, loss of appetite, and associated with respiratory manifestations such as cough, dyspnea, and respiratory discharges. According to the OIE, goats with these criteria are defined as CCPP positive if, (1) Mccp is isolated or there is strong serological evidence of Mccp, (2) only lung and pleura are affected (pleuropneumonia), (3) there is an absence of enlargement of the interlobular septa of the lung (OIE, 2008)

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