Determination of prognostic predictors in patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma: histogram analysis of multiparametric MRI.

Abstract

To evaluate the histogram parameters of preoperative multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and clinical-radiological (CR) characteristics as prognostic predictors in patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma ≤ 5 cm and to determine the optimal time window for histogram analysis. We retrospectively included 151 patients who underwent preoperative MRI between January 2012 and December 2017. All patients were randomly separated into training and validation cohorts (n = 105 and 46). Eight whole-lesion histogram parameters were extracted from T2-weighted images, apparent diffusion coefficient maps, and dynamic contrast-enhanced images. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate these histogram parameters and CR variables related to early recurrence (ER) and recurrence-free survival. A nomogram was derived from the clinical-radiological-histogram (CRH) model that incorporated these risk factors. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic performance of the CRH model. In total, 151 patients (male: female, 130: 21; median age, 54.46 ± 9.09 years) were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the significant risk factors of ER were Mean Absolute Deviation and Minimum in the histogram analysis of the delayed phase images, as well as three important CR variables: albumin-bilirubin grade, microvascular invasion, and tumor size. The nomogram built by incorporating these risk factors showed satisfactory predictive ability in the training and validation cohorts with AUC values of 0.747 and 0.765, respectively. Furthermore, the prognostic nomogram can effectively classify patients into high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.05). Multiparametric MRI-derived histogram parameters provide additional value in predicting patient prognosis. The CRH model may be a useful and noninvasive method for achieving prognostic stratification and personalized disease management.