Abstract
Partial safety factors for the shallow foundations resting on the granular soils have been determined using design value method. Uncertainties involved in the bearing capacity formulas are investigated through a comprehensive literature review. The seismic forces are determined by using POT (peaks over threshold) analysis using earthquake catalog data in Japan, and are fitted to General Pareto distribution. Both First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulation are employed for comparison of probability of failure. It is found that FORM gives very misleading safety index values due to heavy tailed General Pareto distribution.
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