Determination of Monitoring Control Value for Concrete Gravity Dam Spatial Deformation Based on POT Model

Abstract

Deformation can directly reflect the working behavior of the dam, so determining the deformation monitoring control value can effectively monitor the safety of dam operation. The traditional dam deformation monitoring control value only considers the single measuring point. In order to overcome the limitation, this paper presents a new method to determine the monitoring control value for concrete gravity dam based on the deformations of multi-measuring points. A dam’s comprehensive deformation displacement is determined by the measured values at different measuring points on the positive inverted vertical line and the corresponding weight of each measuring point. The projection pursuit method (PPM) combined with the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to determine the weight of each measuring point according to the spatial correlation distribution characteristics of dam deformation. The peaks over threshold (POT) model based on the extreme value theory is adopted to determine the monitoring control value with the obtained dam comprehensive deformation displacement. In addition, the POT model is improved with the automatic threshold determination method based on the criterion in probability theory and the GWO algorithm, which can avoid subjectivity and randomness in determining the threshold. The results of the engineering application show the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.