DETERMINATION OF LATENT FACTORS OF PARTICULAR ACCIDENTS COEFFICIENTS

Abstract

The estimation of road traffic safety is the fundamental stage for developing measures aimed at preventing and decreasing the number of accidents. The aim of the research is to define latent factors describing the traffic conditions parameters influencing the road traffic safety level. The number of latent factors is supposed to be less than one of parameters in the methodics of the final accidents coefficient determination after V. F. Babkof, professor. Within the given research the problems proving the application of factors analysis methods, defining the necessary number of factors describing the initial data and developing latent factors simple structure as well as receiving factors functions which describe the most part of accidents coefficient variety are set and solved. To prove the application of factors analysis methods the linear model of final accidents coefficient dependence on particular accidents coefficients is developed. Kaiser and Kettle criteria to choose the number of new latent factors are applied. Developing a new simple structure of latent factors, application of “Varymax” being the method of factors rotation, is grounded. The received factors describe more than 80% of variety of initial data values of particular accidents coefficients. The presented results are of great importance for the further research in the field of improvement of the methods to define the road traffic safety level under the traffic conditions.