Determination of crop water requirements and potential evapotranspiration for sustainable coffee farming in response to future climate change scenarios

Abstract

Climate change (CC) is causing a significant threat to agriculture, a sector complicatedly tied to natural resources. Changes in precipitation patterns, atmospheric water content, and rising temperatures intensely affect global agriculture, especially in tropical regions. In this intense CC scenario, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and crop water requirement (CWR) are critical components of agricultural water management. This study evaluates the future impact of CC on precipitation, CWR, and PET in different provinces of Thailand's northern and northeastern regions. Three bias correction methods (Delta (DT), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and Quantile Mapping (QM)) were employed for precipitation downscaling from the CanESM5 CMIP6-GCM across selected 13 coffee farms with different coffee species. Arabica and Robusta coffee were carefully selected for this analysis. The DT method demonstrated superiority, exhibiting lower RMSE and higher correlation coefficients than EQM and QM. Farm-specific assessments illuminated water demand's complex dynamics during critical growth stages, showcasing variable CWR and PET. During the blooming stage in N-F1, CWR ranged from 16.7 to 33.7 mm/stage, highlighting the variability in water needs. Projected CC impacts on Arabica and Robusta coffee farms in Chiang Rai and Sisaket presented challenges, emphasizing farm-specific strategies to address potential water deficits or surpluses during critical growth phases. Projected 2023, 2028, and 2033 precipitation demonstrated incongruities with CWR and PET. The findings emphasize the crucial role of farm-specific adaptive strategies in mitigating the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on coffee cultivation.