Abstract
The purpose of this work is to identify variables that are relevant to the copper price setting in the international market. Thus statistical hypothesis tests and statistical tools that help to identify historical relevance and to measure the intensity of the impact of each variable on the copper price on several time horizons were applied. At the end, a regression model that aims to assess the combined effect of the considered time series was estimated. The global industrial production and the aluminum price showed the greatest evidences of being relevant to the copper price. The results suggest that copper stocks, foreign exchange rates and crude oil price should also be considered.
Highlights
Copper is the industrial metal with the highest financial volume and negotiations in the international commodity markets
Worthy of mention is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is a major exchange for copper trading, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), which has become an important exchange in the global scenario, with growing Chinese participation in the metal markets in general
In the research by [5], the causality of the Chilean exchange rate on the copper price was very relevant, being the most relevant variable among those analyzed in the research. [5] addresses an analysis of the impulse response function to measure the magnitude of the effect, as well as the intensity and duration, of the exchange rate on copper price, showing the existence of an immediate effect that lasts for approximately 5 days
Summary
Copper is the industrial metal with the highest financial volume and negotiations in the international commodity markets. Given the importance of this commodity for economic activity, many studies and surveys related to the copper price practiced in the international market have been carried out by academics and direct participants of the international metal markets, in particular, copper Some of these studies and surveys have been developed to evaluate variables and indicators relevant to the copper price formation in the international market. In order to achieve these objectives, econometric procedures were implemented, such as: cointegration tests, causality tests, estimation of impulse response function and linear regression models These different classical statistical inference methods applied here should enable market makers and other economic agents who participate directly or indirectly in the copper market to better understand the actions or movements in the decision-making related to transactions with copper or copper containing products in its production chain.
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