Determination of Climate Change Effects of Impervious Areas in Urban Watershed

Abstract

The earth’s energy balance is changing as a result of the release of large amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Climate change impacts on water sources, especially surface water affects hydrologic processes. In this study, the effects of impervious areas of Eskisehir, a city in the Porsuk Stream Watershed in Western Inner Anatolia of Turkey, to the Porsuk Stream pollution has been modeled using climate change scenarios until 2100. For the identification of these effects the HSPF model (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) developed by United States Environment Protection Agency-EPA has been used. The most significant parameters in surface water, orthophosphate, nitrate, chloride, total coliform, sediment have been modeled using A1, A2, and B2 scenarios. The scenarios are Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It has been determined that, based on these scenarios, until 2100, these water pollution parameter concentrations in outflow will be increased in the Porsuk Stream. Thus, the effects of impervious areas of urban centers on water quality have been shown to be significant with 95% confidence level.