Determination of Air Traffic Complexity Most Influential Parameters Based on Machine Learning Models

Abstract

Today, aircraft demand is exceeding the capacity of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) system. As a result, airspace is becoming a very complex environment to control. The complexity of airspace is thus closely related to the workload of controllers and is a topic of great interest. The major concern is that variables that are related to complexity are currently recognised, but there is still a debate about how to define complexity. This paper attempts to define which variables determine airspace complexity. To do so, a novel methodology based on the use of machine learning models is used. In this way, it tries to overcome one of the main disadvantages of the current complexity models: the subjectivity of the models based on expert opinion. This study has determined that the main indicator that defines complexity is the number of aircraft in the sector, together with the occupancy of the traffic flows and the vertical distribution of aircraft. This research can help numerous studies on both air traffic complexity assessment and Air Traffic Controller (ATCO) workload studies. This model can also help to study the behaviour of air traffic and to verify that there is symmetry in structure and the origin of the complexity in the different ATC sectors. This would have a great benefit on ATM, as it would allow progress to be made in solving the existing capacity problem.