Determination of actions due to fire: recent developments in Bayesian risk assessment of structures under fire

Abstract

AbstractIt is well recognized that the probability of fire start and conditional probability of fire flashover, given fire starts, may be expected in a given building within a broad range, depending on the applied fire safety system. Within the fire safety system the scale of active fire protection can be used to determine the design fire load. Similarly the probability of structural failure and extent of possible injuries from a fire depend considerably on the system of structural protection and arrangement of escape routes. Thus, risk assessment of structures under fire should be based on probabilistic concepts, taking into account various conditional probabilities, for example the proportion of fully developed fires of all started fires, i.e. the conditional probability that of fire flashover, provided that fire has started.It appears that Bayesian causal (belief) networks, supplemented by appropriate input data, may provide an effective tool to analyse the significance of various characteristics of a fire safety system in terms of the resulting probability of flash over and other unfavorable consequences. Moreover, Bayesian networks, supplemented by decision nodes and a number of utility nodes (influence diagram), make it possible to estimate the expected total risk for both the buildings and their occupants and the actions due to the fire.This review paper indicates that application of Bayesian causal (belief) networks may improve assessment of expected total risk, taking into account significant fire safety measures, including structural protection and arrangements of escape routes.