Determinants of within-country variation in traffic accident mortality in Italy: a geographical analysis

Alice Mannocci,Ed Van Beeck,Walter Ricciardi,Gianluigi Quaranta,Giuseppe La Torre

doi:10.1186/1476-072x-6-49

Abstract

ObjectiveTo identify determinants of regional differences in traffic accident mortality in Italy.Data and methodsMultiple linear regression models were conducted assessing the associations between regional differences in traffic mortality, case fatality and accident rates (dependent variables) with socio-demographic factors, and variables describing road behaviour, vehicles, infrastructure and medical care (independent variables). Data were derived from the National Institute of Statistics, the National Institute of Health and the Italian Automobile Club. In addition to analyses for the whole country of Italy, separate models were conducted for Northern and southern regions.ResultsIn Italy large regional differences in traffic mortality rates can be observed, ranging from 5.5 to 20 per 100.000 person-years. There is a North-South gradient with higher mortality rates in the Northern part of Italy. Strong predictors of regional differences in both traffic mortality and accident rates are the employment rate (directly associated) and alcohol use (directly associated). This is observed in the whole of Italy, and separately in Northern and southern regions.ConclusionOur study has shown the need for regional policies to improve road behaviour to reduce traffic accident and mortality rates in identified high-risk areas.

Highlights

It is estimated that in the European Union 1,3 million road traffic accidents occur each year, resulting in 1,7 million injuries and over 40 000 deaths annually
The results of the linear regression models performed in order to explore the relation between regional traffic mortality rates and socio-demographic variables show that the employment rate (β = 0.759; p < 0.001) is the only factor significantly associated with traffic mortality rates within the whole country of Italy (R2 of the model: 0.576)
Regarding the models involving socio-demographic variables, regional differences in the average mortality rate for the years 1999–2002 in Italy appear to be explained by the amount of employed people, while case fatality is associated with the degree or urbanization, and regional variation in accident rates is explained by both the employment rate and the degree or urbanization

Summary

Introduction

It is estimated that in the European Union 1,3 million road traffic accidents occur each year, resulting in 1,7 million injuries and over 40 000 deaths annually. Road traffic injuries are a leading cause of death and disability in children and young people [2,3,4] and are the main cause of death in those under 45 year of age in the European Union [1]. Some statistics reveal that 70% of those injured or killed in traffic crashes are aged between 10–39 [5]. As a result of preventative measures and improvements of trauma care, traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world is decreasing since the early 1970s.

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Discussion

Conclusion