DETERMINANTS OF VEGETABLE PRICE VARIABILITY IN POLAND

Abstract

The aim of the study was to identify factors influencing the variability of purchase prices of vegetables: onions, carrots and cabbage intended for direct consumption and processing. The research period covered years 2011-2022. The article analyzes the variability of purchase prices. It was found that its level in case of the vegetables, taken into consideration, was relatively high, with a slight downward trend in 2020-2022. The prices of vegetables for direct consumption were more volatile than those of vegetables intended for processing. The identification of factors influencing changes in purchase prices was based on the analysis of correlations between purchase prices and time series of selected variables on an annual basis. The study took into account the production volume, the level of import and export of fresh vegetables including processed vegetables, changes in the prices of plant protection products, manual labor fees, fertilizer prices and diesel oil prices. It was found that the strongest correlation occurred between purchase prices and prices of fertilizers, as well as plant protection products. Due to the relatively short research period, it was not possible to determine the correlation between prices and harvest levels. Then, Granger causality tests of selected factors were performed on a monthly basis. The impact of changes in the level of import and export, as well as the prices of plant protection products and manual labor fees on the prices of most products included in the study was confirmed.