Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of individual characteristics (gender, age, education level, and marital status) and regional influences on unemployment duration of young in Tunisia using data from the Panel Study of Tunisia Labor Market 2014 (TLMPS 2014). The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival function are presented (used) to analyze the determinants of unemployment duration. Results point (out) significant differences between men and women in the difficulty of getting a first job. These differences consist mainly in the following points. First, education appears as a highly positive factor in reducing the duration of unemployment, particularly for women. Second, the rural – urban gap continues to be significant in this context. Third, residents of regions with higher unemployment rates, all else equal, have longer duration of unemployment. In all regions, women have relatively longer duration of unemployment. Fourth, the unemployed persons from the age group 25-30 years have a higher probability of remaining unemployed. Fifth, married women have significantly longer duration than married men before finding jobs. These results may be useful and can improve the implementation of adequate policies on the Labor market of Tunisia by identifying vulnerable groups of persons that look for employment.

Highlights

  • Tunisia currently suffers from remarkably high youth unemployment

  • - The unemployed persons with higher education are advantaged on the labor market - There are significant differences between women and men, concerning the unemployment duration; - Average unemployment duration is high in rural areas, for women, - The unemployed persons from the age group 25-30 years have a higher probability of remaining unemployed; we think that it may be more difficult for them to adapt to the new labor market conditions; - The survival curves are different in the analyzed regions; we must investigate which factors are causing these differences

  • The survival functions are graphically represented by the Kaplan - Meier survival curves

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Summary

Introduction

Tunisia currently suffers from remarkably high youth unemployment. The statistics indicate that the youth unemployment rate, at successive cyclic peaks, increased from 29.49 percent in 2010 to 35.12 percent in 2015 and 36.06 percent in 2016 (INS). The increase in the youth unemployment rate at various times in the last few decades is mainly due to an increase of new entrants to the labor force on the first hand, and to a high duration of unemployment on the other hand; it takes most people a long time to find a job. This situation raises the question of how some persons take longer to get a job than others.

Theoretical and empirical considerations
Survival analysis of unemployment duration
The Kaplan-Meier method
The Data Set
Results of the Kaplan-Meier
Conclusions and recommendations
Full Text
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