Abstract
This paper considers how changes in the fabric of society and its values, a subject usually considered to be outside the conventional scope of the transport profession, can have a profound impact on travel demand. The paper stems from the Transport Visions Network, a unique activity involving young professionals from academia, consultancy and government. It raises awareness of the diversity of factors that influence travel and transport. The paper offers an overview of existing trends and projections for the future before presenting a series of different future scenarios. Suggestions on the consequences for transport are then put forward.
Highlights
With the publication of its Transport White Paper in 1998 (DETR, 1998) the UK Government recognised that this approach was no longer tenable and that there was a need to manage travel demand
An alternative approach in such circumstances is that of scenario planning
The benefit of scenario planning is that it recognises that when studying or predicting the future, to start with certainties is to end with doubts (Government of Queensland, 2000)
Summary
A free market oriented society will contribute to increased levels of migration as people will move as freely as goods and services. In both the community and individual oriented society people will delay having children resulting in a longer period in early adult life of high levels of mobility and home relocation.
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