Determinants of the Polish State Budget Stability

Abstract

The problem of the stability of budget revenue and expenditure has been the subject of research for many years. However, there is still a need to monitor this phenomenon to achieve a correct balance in the budget because of the instability of different factors in the economic surroundings that affect the budget. This is especially important in developing countries undergoing economic transformation, and Poland is still in that process. The study aims to assess changes in the Polish state budget’s size and revenue and expenditure structure between 2000 and 2022. The method of comparative analysis over time is used with the actual value of the money concept, measures of dynamics, structure, GDP ratios, statistical description and coefficients of dissimilarity of structures. Analyses have shown a permanent imbalance in the Polish budget. However, the budget’s primary result oscillates around zero and both revenues and expenditures have gradually increased. The volatility of budget revenue and spending is moderate. Only the use of EU funds is characterised by high volatility. The emerging crises (e.g. Russia’s war against Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic) have a negligible impact on the budget structure, but they influence its level of expenditure. The changes in Polish budget size are generally due to inflation, economic growth rates, and the inflow of funds from the European Union budget.