Abstract
Floods and storms are climate-related hazards posing high mortality risk to Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations. However risk factors for their lethality remain untested. We conducted an ecological study investigating risk factors for flood and storm lethality in CARICOM nations for the period 1980–2012. Lethality - deaths versus no deaths per disaster event- was the outcome. We examined biophysical and social vulnerability proxies and a decadal effect as predictors. We developed our regression model via multivariate analysis using a generalized logistic regression model with quasi-binomial distribution; removal of multi-collinear variables and backward elimination. Robustness was checked through subset analysis. We found significant positive associations between lethality, percentage of total land dedicated to agriculture (odds ratio [OR] 1.032; 95% CI: 1.013–1.053) and percentage urban population (OR 1.029, 95% CI 1.003–1.057). Deaths were more likely in the 2000–2012 period versus 1980–1989 (OR 3.708, 95% CI 1.615–8.737). Robustness checks revealed similar coefficients and directions of association. Population health in CARICOM nations is being increasingly impacted by climate-related disasters connected to increasing urbanization and land use patterns. Our findings support the evidence base for setting sustainable development goals (SDG).
Highlights
Floods and storms are climate-related hazards posing high mortality risk to Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations
Our study alludes to land use and urbanization as two determinants of lethality to floods and storms in the CARICOM member countries, adjusting for time as a decadal effect
Maqueo et al analysed the relationship between the components of human, built, social, and natural capitals on mortality due to hurricanes worldwide
Summary
Floods and storms are climate-related hazards posing high mortality risk to Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations. The need to formulate post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which should be evidence-based[10], increases the onus for studies to consider widely the distal societal factors which may be a consequence of current developmental policies. This is the case for the Caribbean, one of the world regions most frequently hit by tropical cyclones and flooding due to the accompanying storm surges[11] and where the mortality risk associated with major climate-related hazards is considered to be amongst the highest[12,13]. These countries share a regional coordinating body for disaster response – the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA)[15]
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