Determinants of the Arab Spring Protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya: What Have We Learned?

Zahraa Barakat,Ali Fakih

doi:10.3390/socsci10080282

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of protest participation in Arab Spring countries that witnessed major uprisings and in which social unrest was most pronounced. Namely, this paper investigates the latter in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya using a micro-level data survey, the Arab Transformation Survey (2015). The findings of our probit regression analysis reveal that gender, trust in government, corruption concern, and social media usage have influenced the individual’s perception of protest activism. We find evidence that the role of economic factors was inconsistent, whereas political grievances were more clearly related to the motive to participate in the uprisings. We then control for country-specific effects whereby results show that citizens in each country showed different characteristics of participation. The findings of this research would set the ground for governments to better assess the health of their societies and be a model of governance in the Middle East.

Highlights

The political landscape of the Arab states has been significantly shaped by the events of the so-called “Arab Spring”
This paper examines the factors behind participation in the Arab Spring demonstrations in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya
We find that the gender gap is significant in the examined sample, lack of trust in government showed to be a significant trigger towards protesting, social media played an essential role in influencing people to take part in protests, and governments’ attempts to combat corruption tend to decrease the probability of bringing people into streets

Summary

Introduction

The political landscape of the Arab states has been significantly shaped by the events of the so-called “Arab Spring”. The movements began in Tunisia when mass and vicious demonstrations took place against the long dictatorial standards of the tyrant rulers This inspired other countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to undergo similar movements, adopting this activism and making it a powerful tool that matured later in the form local uprisings. The protest has been identified as the main foundation of social movements rising the threat of civil wars or conflicts (Porta 2008). It stems from the state’s inability to curb uprisings in a peaceful approach This results in the state responding with violence, which further entices conflict (Tilly 1978; Mello 2010). Most of the protests in the MENA region were oppressed by brutal measures taken by the state as in Libya and Egypt, while in other cases, appeasement and nonviolent measures were taken, such as in Tunisia

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion