Abstract
This study identified factors affecting livestock farmers’ agricultural drought resilience to food insecurity in Northern Cape Province, South Africa. Data of 217 smallholder livestock farmers were used in a principal component analysis to estimate the agricultural drought resilience index. The structural equation approach was then applied to assess smallholder livestock farmers’ resilience to food insecurity. The study found that most smallholder livestock farmers (81%) were not resilient to agricultural drought. Assets (β = 0.150), social safety nets (β = 0.001), and adaptive capacity (β = 0.171) indicators positively impacted households’ resilience to food insecurity with 5% significance. Climate change indicators negatively impacted households’ resilience to food insecurity. Two variables were included under climate change, focusing on drought, namely drought occurrence (β = −0.118) and drought intensity (β = −0.021), which had a negative impact on household resilience to food insecurity with 10% significance. The study suggests that smallholder livestock farmers need assistance from the government and various stakeholders to minimize vulnerability and boost their resilience to food insecurity.
Highlights
Agriculture, including the livestock sector, is one of the industries on which drought has a major influence, causing loss of agricultural production
The results indicated that Herd/flock size (HFS) (β = 0.333), agricultural assets (AA) (β = 0.089), and non-agricultural assets (NAA) (β = −0.019) influenced households’ resilience to food insecurity
The structural equation modeling result indicated that assets, adaptive capacity, safety nets, and climate change indicators significantly impacted households’ resilience to food insecurity
Summary
Agriculture, including the livestock sector, is one of the industries on which drought has a major influence, causing loss of agricultural production. The impact of agricultural drought on livestock production is becoming a significant physical stressor in temperate and humid regions, including South Africa [1]. Agricultural drought impacts livestock production and quality, which is dependent on several factors, such as intensity, recurrent agricultural drought, vulnerability, water stress, and socio-economic factors [2]. Loss caused by agricultural drought is estimated to cost from USD 6 to 8 billion annually [3]. An estimated 40 million people have been affected by drought in southern Africa, with a cereal deficit of 9.3 million tonnes recorded at the end of the 2015/16 cropping season [4,5]. The livestock industry, for example, had a 15% reduction in the national herd stock due to the drought [6]
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