Abstract
This article analyzes the factors affecting the sales revenue of sports lottery from the perspective of innovative diffusion theory by system dynamics analysis. With the quantification and simulation of system dynamics, the sales revenue of sports lottery is affected is found. With the daily sales amount during the FIFA World Cup 2018 as samples, six variables (reach frequency, adoption rate, betting among per person per day, advertisement expenditure, advertisement successful rate, and potential bettor increase rate) are used to find out the key factors. According to the simulation result of this study, it indicates that all the variables exert a positive influence on the sales revenue. The magnitude of influence on sales, from large to small, they are betting among per person per day, reach frequency and adoption rate in word-to-mouth, potential bettors increase rate, advertisement expenditure and advertisement successful rate in the advertisement effects. During the FIFA World Cup 2018, advertising effects initiated the diffusion of sports lottery. Compared to the advertising effects, word-to-mouth effects were bigger. In the same situation and with the same resources, Taiwan Sports Lottery, the operator could change the betting among per person per day and change the word-to-mouth advertising with priority. When major matches take place in the future, Taiwan Sports Lottery is suggested to judge if it maintains an optimistic attitude for future growth, it shall begin to promote advertising effects. When more people learn more about the sports lottery, with the diffusion of word-to-mouth advertising, the effects will be most significant.
Highlights
The emergence of the lottery industry and entertainment, and the promotion of high technology makes lottery easier to access
By changing the “adoption rate” with standard situation as the criteria, in the optimistic situation, the accumulated sales amount increases about 24% when compared with the standard situation
This research regards FIFA World Cup 2018 as the object of study, using the integration of system dynamics and innovation diffusion model as the foundation to construct a dynamic model for the analysis the impacts of advertisement effects and word-to-mouth effects on the financial effects
Summary
The emergence of the lottery industry and entertainment, and the promotion of high technology makes lottery easier to access. FIFA World Cup is a non-normal and new sports lottery activity that happened in a period It will exert a bigger influence on potential bettors (Uzochukwu, 2021). The study of innovation diffusion theory mainly uses logical and mathematical functions to propose basic diffusion models to predict and verify sales (Bass, 1969). It derives many affecting variables further alternating the original model (Mahajan and Peterson, 1979, Robinson and Lakhani, 1975). The study analyzes and simulates FIFA World Cup 2018 with system dynamics, with the consideration of the aspects of advertising, word-to-mouth advertising, finance issues, and innovative diffusion models. Suggestions will be given to the making of the sales strategy of sports lottery sales revenue
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