Abstract
Basing on the previous and early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, this article analysis the main determinants of citizens' trust in the prime minister over that period. Prior research on the political effects of the pandemic has mostly focused on identifying a rally around the flag effect, and little is known about other reasons behind the increase in trust after the outbreak of the pandemic. Based on survey data from February to July 2020 for Spanish citizens, we argue that the reasons for the increased trust in the prime minister following the pandemic outbreak are due more to performance evaluations than to emotional-related factors regarding COVID-19 health issues. We also argue that among performance evaluations, the assessment of policy performance in fighting the COVID-19 crisis is of preeminent relevance in explaining trust in the prime minister during the pandemic period. Findings widely support our argument. By comparing the effects of conventional to emotional-related factors, we extend scholarship on political trust in the context of an exogenous crisis.
Highlights
The first signs of the coronavirus pandemic were detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and were rapidly felt all over the world
Based on survey data from February to July 2020 for Spanish citizens, we argue that the reasons for the increased trust in the prime minister following the pandemic outbreak are due more to performance evaluations than to emotional-related factors regarding Covid-19 health issues
We argue that among performance evaluations, the assessment of policy performance in fighting the Covid-19 crisis is of preeminent relevance in explaining trust in the prime minister during the pandemic period
Summary
The first signs of the coronavirus pandemic were detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and were rapidly felt all over the world. This effect consists of a substantial rise in citizens’ trust in the political leading figures as a consequence of an external threat, due to emotional reasons (Mueller, 1970; for a literature review see: Baekgaard et al, 2020: 5) Shocks such as the 11 September 2001 terrorist attack in the United States and the 11 March 2004 Madrid terrorist attack led to increased levels of political trust (Dinesen and Jæger, 2013; Hetherington and Nelson, 2003). They are the most exposed leaders to public scrutiny, usually being the first targets in citizens’ evaluation of government performance (being suitable to assess cognitive factors) For these reasons, we focus on the determinants of trust in the prime minister, and not in political institutions, as most previous research.
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