Abstract
During the covid-19 pandemic, physical distancing is being promoted to reduce the disease transmission and pressure on health systems. Yet, what determines physical distancing? Through a panel data analysis, this article identifies some of its determinants. Using a specifically built index that measures the strictness of physical distancing rules in the 27 Brazilian states, this paper isolates the effect of mandatory physical distancing rules from other potential determinants of physical distancing. The article concludes that physical distancing is influenced by at least three variables: the strictness of mandatory physical distancing rules, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19, and the duration of rules. Evidence also indicates that the effect of physical distancing measures is relatively stronger than that of the number of cases -physical distancing is determined proportionally more by mandatory policies than people's awareness about the severity of the epidemic. These results have at least two policy implications. First, governments should adopt mandatory measures in order to increase physical distancing - rather than expect people to adopt them on their own. Second, the timing of adopting them is important, since people are unlikely to comply with them for long periods of time.
Highlights
What determines physical distancing? In the context of an epidemic in which there are no better alternatives to reduce the transmission of a disease and no effective treatment, the answer to this question might determine government policies to contain an epidemic
Physical distancing’s decrease over time was on average higher than the decrease in the strictness of mandatory physical distancing rules. This is puzzling because it coincided with rising numbers of cases and deaths due to covid-19, which should make people comply more – rather than less – with physical distancing rules
This indicates that the length of legal rules of physical distancing may be negatively correlated with levels of physical distancing
Summary
What determines physical distancing? In the context of an epidemic in which there are no better alternatives to reduce the transmission of a disease and no effective treatment, the answer to this question might determine government policies to contain an epidemic. Maloney and Taskin[1] argued that the covid-19 pandemic per se led to voluntary demobilization and that this effect is stronger than that of NPIs, what was observed in all but the poorest countries This finding was reinforced by case studies on the US and Sweden, where evidence indicates that physical distancing increased before mandatory measures were adopted. The causal mechanism could be the fear of getting infected and empathy for those most vulnerable to the virus[2] or people’s belief in science[3] If this is true, lifting restrictive measures during the epidemic would not have a great impact, as people would practice physical distancing anyway. Engle et al.[4], Brzezinski et al.[5], Painter and Qiu[6] and Anderson et al.[7] demonstrated that mandatory physical distancing measures in the United States significantly increased the probability of someone staying at home
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