Abstract

This paper analyses determinants of the parallel exchange rate in Myanmar : A time series analysis confirms the following points: first , there is a cointegration relationship between the consumer price index and the parallel exchange rate , which is compatible with the general perception that the chronic depreciation is due to the monetization of fiscal deficits. Second , business fluctuations largely accounted for the changes in the parallel rate in the short term, whereas natural gas revenues did have little effect. On the other hand , given the structure of the parallel exchange market , the disparity between the official and the parallel rates per se appears to exert little impact on the private sector.

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