Determinants of longevity and age at death in a practically extinct cohort of middle-aged men followed-up for 61years.

Abstract

To explore possible determinants of longevity as a function of many personal characteristics in a cohort of middle-aged men followed-up until practical extinction. In the Italian Rural Area of the Seven Countries Study, 1712 men aged 40-59 were examined in 1960 and 35 personal characteristics were measured. The subsequent follow-up for life status was of 61years when only 3 men survived. A Kaplan-Meier curve was computed. A Cox model was solved with all-cause mortality as end-point and 35 potential determinants as covariates. A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was also solved with the same covariates and age at death (AD) as end-point. After 61years, 99.8% of men had died and median age at death was 75. Beneficial risk factors for both models (p < 0.05) were: never smoker, vigorous physical activity, prudent and Mediterranean diets, arm circumference, subscapular skinfold, and vital capacity. Adverse risk factors (p < 0.05) were: mother early death, laterality/linearity index, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, corneal arcus, xanthelasma, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and chronic bronchitis. Some arbitrary combinations of selected risk factors were used to estimate AD as a function of coefficients of the MLR, showing large differences up to 10years or more. Several personal characteristics of anthropometric, behavioral, biophysical, biochemical, and clinical nature are strongly associated with longevity when measured in middle-aged men and then followed up until extinction.