Determinants of international football performance: Empirical evidence from the 1994–2022 FIFA World Cup

Abstract

In the past 30 years, the global influence of the FIFA World Cup has continued to grow. According to statistics, the final match of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar attracted an audience of over 3 billion. Nowadays, nations (and regions) emphasize the correlation between overall social progress, football tradition, and national sporting prowess. This study aims to comprehend the dynamics of international football development and secure a competitive edge in the global arena. The study collected panel data from 68 countries (regions) participating in the final stage of the World Cup from 1994 to 2022. It modelled them using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to reveal the macro determinants of success and winning patterns in international football performance. The findings show that (1) football tradition's “characteristic values” (e.g. World Cup host, the experience of hosting the World Cup and the number of all-time World Cup winners) and national comprehensive sporting strength (as represented by the Olympic Games results) have significantly contributed to the national team's World Cup performance; (2) the country's Human Development Index (HDI) has a significant negative impact on World Cup performance; (3) the history of football participation (e.g. the number of years of membership in the Intercontinental Football Association (IFA), history of professional leagues) will have little impact on World Cup performance; (4) two interactive variables: population scale × national comprehensive sporting strength (GPOP × CSOGMedals) and economic level × football tradition (lnGDP × PLHistory), have a negative and positive combined effect on World Cup performance, respectively.