Determinants of household flood evacuation mode choice in a developing country

Abstract

Increasing frequency and severity of hazards that lead to devastating disaster impacts demand building substantial response capability. Evacuation is seen as one of the effective measures to avert disaster impacts. Planning and modeling of effective evacuation incorporate evacuation travel behavior. This study seeks to identify and understand the effects of determinants on households’ mode choice behavior in a developing country. Discrete choice models were estimated and validated from original data collected in selected sub-districts in Quezon City, Philippines. Findings revealed important determinants that can help evacuation planners and managers develop strategies for future flood evacuation operations. Determinants to evacuees who traveled on-foot include departure timing, destination type, age, gender and educational attainment of the head of the household, presence of small children, presence of health problem, house ownership, number of years living in the residence, vehicle ownership, source of warning, distance traveled to safety and cost of evacuation. Results of this study provide insights that can be useful for the government to plan for future evacuations. For instance, the government can encourage the households with a personal vehicle to use them in future evacuations, while providing for those without a personal vehicle and needing to travel longer distances. The government can also encourage households living in high flood risk areas to prepare household evacuation plans.