Determinants of food insecurity before and during COVID-19: An empirical analysis for Malawi

Abstract

Widespread food insecurity can impede the progress of low-income economies. Little is known about the determinants of household level experiential food insecurity in low-income countries such as Malawi, in the presence of COVID-19 induced income loss and covariate shocks. We address this research gap via econometric estimations of the determinants of food insecurity using household data from the Third and Fourth Integrated Household Surveys for Malawi (IHS3 for 2010–11 and IHS4 for 2016–17). Our study also provides evidence-based policy implications for tackling food insecurity in Malawi by constructing the first Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) using the High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) on COVID-19 conducted in 2020 for Malawi, which allows to identify severely food insecure households using a random ordered probit modelling approach during disasters such as COVID-19. Our results reveal that the education level of the household head, household size, urban residence, food aid and exposure and vulnerability to covariate shocks such as disasters including landslides, droughts, floods, earthquakes and crop pest damage are important drivers of food insecurity among Malawian households. Our analyses enhance the international food policy debate and vulnerability assessment in the current context of disasters like COVID-19 and present important policy implications for tackling food insecurity.