Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted the agricultural supply chain, export of agricultural products, and overall food security. However, minimal exploration has been attempted of farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study intends to explore the determinants of farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, we analyzed the relationship between risk expectation and social support on the farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery by using the ordered probit model. Cross-sectional survey data were collected from February to March 2020 from 458 farm households in the 7 provinces of China to produce the findings. We found that the risk expectation of farmers had a significant negative impact on farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery. Social support seemingly had a significant positive impact on the farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery, and could play a supportive role in moderating the relationship between risk expectation and farmers’ confidence in recovery. However, social support alleviates the adverse effect of risk expectation on farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery to a certain extent. In addition, there were intergenerational differences in the effects of risk expectation and social support on farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery. These results imply that policies establishing the risk early warning mechanisms for agricultural production and strengthening the social support from governments and financial institutions are likely to significantly impact agricultural development in the post-COVID-19 era. The formal and informal risk minimization mechanisms should extend their support to vulnerable sectors such as agribusiness.
Highlights
We focused on the impact of farmers’ risk expectations on confidence in agricultural production recovery within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
We empirically analyzed the relationship between risk expectations, social support, and farmers’ confidence in agricultural production recovery
Our results show that the following: First, the risk expectation of farmers has a significant negative impact on their confidence in agricultural production recovery; the higher the risk that farmers expect to agricultural production from COVID-19, the harder it will be to restore their confidence in agricultural production
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial negative impact on the development of the world economy and the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations [1,2]. According to the World Bank, the actual global gross domestic product declined by 5.2%. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted the global agricultural system [3], negatively impacting the supply, cultivation, transportation, and sales of agricultural products [4]. The pandemic has limited the movement of people, leading to labor shortages in agriculture and some disruptions to production [5]. The pandemic has had a negative impact on the agricultural supply chain, and it has become extremely difficult to purchase agricultural materials, transport products, and sell agricultural products because of traffic controls, village closures, and road closures [6]
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