Abstract
Electricity intensity is an important indicator for measuring production efficiency. A comparative study could offer a new perspective on investigating determinants of electricity demand. The Japanese non-metallic mineral products industry is chosen as the object for comparison considering its representative position in production efficiency. By adopting the cointegration model, this paper examines influencing factors of electricity demand in Japanese and Chinese non-metallic mineral products industries under the same framework. Results indicate that although economic growth and industrial development stages are different between the two countries, major factors that affect the sectoral energy consumption are the same. Specifically, economic growth and industrial activity contribute to the growth of sectoral electricity consumption, while R&D intensity, per capita productivity and electricity price are contributors to the decline of sectoral electricity consumption. Finally, in order to further investigate the development trend of sectoral electricity demand, future electricity consumption and conservation potential are predicted under different scenarios. Electricity demand of the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry is predicted to be 680.53 TWh (terawatt-hours) in 2020 and the sectoral electricity conservation potentials are estimated to be 118.26 TWh and 216.25 TWh under the moderate and advanced electricity-saving scenarios, respectively.
Highlights
The electricity conservation potential of the non-metallic mineral products industry is investigated for the following three reasons: first, the non-metallic mineral products industry, one of the six highest energy-consuming industries in China, consumes 6% of national electricity; further, it is a pillar industry which contributes to nearly one percent of GDP each year [1]; second, considering the rapid urbanization in China, it plays a crucial role in national energy conservation and low carbon transition compared to other industrial subsectors; third, many empirical works have contributed to the energy-saving literature, to the best of our knowledge, no studies far have examined determinants of the sectoral electricity demand by conducting a comparative study
To check the stationary of variables used in the model, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and PP tests are adopted in this paper
Electricity conservation is an inevitable choice for China to mitigate the growing electricity demand as well as the increasing carbon dioxide emissions in the industrial sector
Summary
The electricity conservation potential of the non-metallic mineral products industry is investigated for the following three reasons: first, the non-metallic mineral products industry, one of the six highest energy-consuming industries in China, consumes 6% of national electricity; further, it is a pillar industry which contributes to nearly one percent of GDP each year [1]; second, considering the rapid urbanization in China, it plays a crucial role in national energy conservation and low carbon transition compared to other industrial subsectors; third, many empirical works have contributed to the energy-saving literature, to the best of our knowledge, no studies far have examined determinants of the sectoral electricity demand by conducting a comparative study. Bottom-up models have been adopted to simulate energy systems based on technologies for energy consumption and production, which could examine the physical reality of energy saving potential or the potential for carbon emissions mitigation [5]. This indicator was not included in this paper because the nonmetallic mineral products industry is a two-digit industrial sub-sector
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