Determinants of Demand for Fish and Their Effects Upon Resources

Abstract

World population is expected to grow from its present level of 3.7 billion to 4.6 billion in 1980 and 6.6 billion by the end of the century. In order merely to maintain per capita fish consumption at present levels this will necessitate an increased fish supply of some 8 million tons by 1980 and 27 million tons by the end of the century. This excludes allowances for any increase in fish meal consumption.If under the influence of rising incomes per capita consumption levels also grow, then this will increase further the additional supplies required. On the basis of past trends, per capita demand on a world average might be expected to rise from its present level of 11.8 kg, to 13.3 kg in 1980, and more speculatively to 16.2 kg by the end of the century. On this assumption, the combined effect of population and income growth would be to add by 1980 some 18.5 million tons, and by the end of the century 63 million tons to the present world demand for fish. This again excludes any allowance for increased demand for fish meal for which, it is believed, due mainly to supply limitations, there will be no significant increase in consumption above present levels.The increases in demand for fish for direct human consumption will, nevertheless, push the exploitation of conventional fish resources to the limit of their potential yields. By 1980, it seems likely that the potential still remaining to be harvested from conventional fish stocks will have fallen from its present level of about 45% to some 30%, and by the end of the century the unexploited potential is likely to be negligible. This rate of utilization assumes, however, that there will be significant increases in production from cultured sources, which could be stimulated by the rising prices likely to be associated with the full exploitation of wild stocks. As more and more wild stocks reach this point, management will become increasingly necessary to prevent the build-up of useless excess capacity of the world’s fishing fleets, and in some cases to prevent fishing effort reaching the point at which the productive capacity of the resources becomes threatened.