Abstract

By the end of 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in over 54 million cases and more than 800,000 deaths in the United States, and over 350 million cases and more than 5 million deaths worldwide. The uniqueness and gravity of this pandemic have been reflected in the public health guidelines poorly received by a growing subset of the United States population. These poorly received guidelines, including vaccine receipt, are a highly complex psychosocial issue, and have impacted the successful prevention of disease spread. Given the intricate nature of this important barrier, any single statistical analysis methodologically fails to address all convolutions. Therefore, this study utilized different analytical approaches to understand vaccine motivations and population-level trends. With 12,975 surveys from a state-wide year-long surveillance initiative, we performed three robust statistical analyses to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: principal component analysis, survival analysis and spatial time series analysis. The analytic goal was to utilize complementary mathematical approaches to identify overlapping themes of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine trust in a highly conservative US state. The results indicate that vaccine receipt is influenced by the source of information and the population’s trust in the science and approval process behind the vaccines. This multifaceted statistical approach allowed for methodologically rigorous results that public health professionals and policy makers can directly use to improve vaccine interventions.

Highlights

  • As of December 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 350 million cases and 5.36 million deaths worldwide, and approximately 54,9 million cases and827,823 deaths in the U.S alone [1]

  • All three results found individuals are likely to receive the COVID-19 vaccine if they do not in the research and less likely to receive the COVID-19 vaccine if they do trust not trust in science, the science, research governmental approval processes behind these thought and governmental approval processes behind thesevaccines

  • Our results indicate that trust in science may be stronger in this state than trust for the government, so focusing on messages that rely on the science, rather than the government, could be beneficial [36]

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Summary

Introduction

As of December 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 350 million cases and 5.36 million deaths worldwide, and approximately 54,9 million cases and827,823 deaths in the U.S alone [1]. Throughout the pandemic, resources were scarce, new tools and strategies were developed One of these strategies was the development of guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which included promoting social distancing, handwashing, mask wearing, frequent testing and vaccination [5]. Meltzer et al found that adherence to public health measures was related to worry about contracting COVID-19 [5], and in a study of Reader et al, at least 17–21% of the respondents were not likely at all to wear a mask [6]. This previous research indicates that for successful public health responses, we must take population behaviors and disease knowledge into consideration [5,6]. Strict public health measures have not always been effective, and level of adherence is dependent on the population’s trust and knowledge, and their information sources [3,5]

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