Determinants of Birth Rate under China’s "Two-Child Policy"

Abstract

In this study, the factors to affect the birth rate in China are analyzed at the provincial level. The panel data were collected from 2016 to 2020 under the "two-child policy". Based on the random-effects model, disposable income of households, elderly dependency ratio, and public expenditure for medical and health care, family planning have a negative relationship with the birth rate. On the contrary, consumption expenditure of households, Gross Regional Product, and children dependency ratio have a positive correlation with the birth rate. Therefore, this paper suggests that the adjustment in fertility policy has quite a limited effect on the birth rate. Improvement of people’s living standards, reduction of the cost and pressure on childbearing, and protection of women’s reproductive rights are more effective ways to raise fertility levels.